Aviation Lesser Part Of Homeland Security Threat.

Aviation Daily

December 9, 2008 Tuesday

Report: Aviation Lesser Part Of Homeland Security Threat

BYLINE: Benet Wilson

SECTION: News; Pg. 6 Vol. 374 No. 48


Despite the current global recession, the effect on the aviation industry will be offset to some degree by lower fuel prices, and the effect on the security market is likely to be less severe, especially in the long run, according to a new report.

Civil aviation faces multiple, complex challenges and threats, and must adapt to their evolving nature, according to «Global Homeland Security, Homeland Defense and Intelligence Markets Outlook 2009-2018,» published by Washington, D.C.-based Homeland Security Research Corporation.

«Before the financial crisis of 2008, the aviation industry was poised to post a global growth of 5% CAGR for passenger and cargo traffic,» it noted in the aviation security market chapter of the report. «The greatest current threat, as demonstrated by the Heathrow plot of August 2006, reminds us that terrorism is the most prominent of these threats, and therefore must stay the focus of our counter-threat strategy.»

The report analyzed threats focused on civil aviation in two ways: by originator and by targets and tactics. It defined three categories of threats: to and from aircraft; to the aviation infrastructure; and from hostile exploitation of cargo.

Globalization, technological advances, the proliferation of new aviation terror technologies, and the emergence of terrorism as a global phenomenon have enabled threats to civil aviation to extend in reach, accelerate in speed, and increase in potential impact, the report noted. «Aviation is a global enterprise with a distributed infrastructure and multiple access points,» it stated. «Successful attacks on civil aviation can inflict mass casualties and grave economic damage, and attract significant public attention because of the impact on a modern transportation system.»

Intelligence on threats to civil aviation plays a critical role in assessing terrorist groups’ intentions and capabilities and requires regular updating and review to ensure that governments, the private sector, and the international community are taking appropriate countermeasures. However, even the best intelligence will not uncover every specific terrorist plot, because of terrorists’ distributed network, and their efforts at operational secrecy.